News & Industry Affairs/IATA news
- May Air Passenger Market Analysis
- May Air Freight Market Analysis
- April Air Passenger Market Analysis
- April Air Freight Market Analysis
- March Air Passenger Market Analysis
- March Air Freight Market Analysis
- IATA AGM endorses 5 resolutions
- February Air Passenger Market Analysis
- February Air Freight Market Analysis
- IATA launches Diversity & Inclusion Awards
- How IATA's One Order could revolutionize travel management
- January Air Passenger Market Analysis
- January Air Freight Market Analysis
- Dossier: Fit for purpose - The Chicago Convention
- IATA 2019 Training Catalogue
May 2019 IATA Air Passenger Market Analysis
Passenger demand remains sound, but the trend has eased
Highlights of the May 2019 Air Passenger Market Analysis
- Industry-wide revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) continued to show solid growth in May, increasing by 4.5% in year-on-year terms. However, the trend rate of growth has clearly slowed over recent months.
- With capacity increasing by a moderate 2.7% over the past year, the industry-wide load factor posted a new record high for May. All regions with the exception of the Middle East set new record levels.
- International RPK growth moderated slightly this month, driven by slower growth in the developed markets of Europe and North America. Middle East airlines have reduced international capacity by 6% over the past year.
Africa growth lifts a little in May
International RPK volumes also grew slightly faster this month then they did in April – at a modest 2.1% year-on-year vs 1.1%. The region has barely increased capacity over the past year which has led to a 1.3 percentage point increase in the passenger load factor. Even so, at 67.0%, the region lags its counterparts on this measure.
The RPK growth trend has moderated…
Industry-wide revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) ticked marginally higher in May, up 4.5% in year-onyear terms. This is a solid outcome, following the short-lived dip in activity in March – where RPK growth eased to 3.1% yoy, in part due to the changed timing of Easter – but it remains below the long-term (20-year) average rate of around 5.5%.
Looking through the regular seasonal volatility, the upwards trend in the level of RPKs continued this month. However, the trend has clearly moderated since around mid-2018.
The seasonally-adjusted (SA) data are consistent with
an annualized RPK growth rate of around 4%
currently, compared with a pace of around 7% in the
early part of 2018.
…as global headwinds dampen demand
The slowing in the RPK growth trend in recent months
comes as little surprise given the developments in a
number of key indicators.
The global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has proven to be a reliable leading indicator of air passenger demand. The PMI eased further this month, continuing the downward trend observed over the past year or so and is now at a level not seen since 2016.
This downward trend is consistent with the modest
slowdown observed in global economic activity over
a similar period.
At its current level, the PMI suggests that RPK growth
may moderate further over the near-term.