News & Industry Affairs
- March - April 2017 IATA Airlines Financial Monitor
Airlines Financial Monitor
- Global airline share prices rose by 2.5% in April, partly reflecting expectations that the squeeze on margins will diminish. The monthly increase was driven by European airlines, with modest increases in Asia-Pac and North America.
- The initial financial results from Q1 2017 highlight the extent that airline profit margins were squeezed in the opening months of the year by a combination of higher costs and weak yields.
- Brent crude oil prices fell sharply in mid-April, and dropped below US$50/bbl in early-May for the first time since the end of November. Forward markets still expect oil prices to rise only gradually over the next 2-3 years.
- Passenger yields remain well below their level a year ago, but there are ongoing signs that the long-standing downward trend in the seasonally adjusted series may be bottoming out.
- Passenger and freight demand growth has made a strong start to 2017. The passenger load factor remains steady close to a record high level, while the freight load factor has recovered back to levels last seen in early-2015.
- Premium airfares continue to hold up better than those of the economy cabin, supporting airline finances. Download the full document here.
- March 2017 IATA Air Passenger Market Analysis
A robust first quarter of 2017 for air passenger demand
Global revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) grew by 6.8% year-on-year in March. This was a moderate slowdown in growth relative to February once you allow for the distortion to the data last month owing to the extra day in February 2016. (We estimate that the ‘underlying’ February RPK year-on-year growth rate was slightly more than 8%, compared to the ‘unadjusted’ 4.9% figure.)
A robust first quarter of 2017 for pax growth
Nonetheless, the March data completed a robust first quarter of 2017 for passenger demand growth: industry-wide RPKs were 7.0% higher than in the same period a year ago, and around 8.1% higher adjusting for the leap year effect. This is well ahead of the long-run average RPK growth rate of around 5.5%. Download the full document here.
- March 2017 IATA Air Freight Market Analysis
March data complete a strong Q1 for annual FTK growth
Global FTKs grew by 14.0% year-on-year in March – the fastest pace since October 2010. Airlines based in Europe and Asia Pacific accounted for around two-thirds of the annual increase in freight volumes, with the remainder split almost equally between North American and Middle Eastern carriers. (See Chart 1.) The modest positive contribution made by African airlines was the strongest in nearly seven years, but Latin American carriers detracted from annual FTK growth for the thirteenth month in a row. Download the full document here.
Growth reaches a multi-year high in March…
- February 2017 IATA Air Passenger Market Analysis
Leap year effects distort headline data, but a robust start to 2017
2016 leap year is affecting annual comparisons
Year-on-year growth in global revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) fell to 4.8% in February from January’s five-year high (8.9%). However, the data are distorted by the fact that 2016 was a leap year. Adjusting for the one fewer day in February this year, we estimate that the ‘underlying’ RPK growth rate was closer to 8.6% – not far off January’s pace.
The extra day in 2016 is also distorting data for January and February combined, albeit to a lesser extent. Industry-wide RPKs have grown by 7.0% in annual terms so far this year to date, but by 8.8% allowing for the leap year effect – well above the longrun average of around 5.5%. Download the full document here.
- January 2017 IATA Air Passenger Market Analysis
Annual RPK growth accelerates to a 5-year high at the start of 2017
A strong start to 2017 for passenger traffic
Annual growth in industry-wide revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) accelerated to 9.6% in January – its fastest pace since April 2011 and the strongest start to the year since 2005. The Middle East and Asia Pacific regions both posted double-digit annual growth rates, while North American airlines were the laggard for the fourth consecutive month (3.4%). Download the full document here.
- January 2017 IATA Air Freight Market Analysis
Air freight looks to have carried momentum into the New Year
A solid start to the year for air freight
The 6.9% annual increase in global FTKs in January marked an easing from December’s double-digit pace, but it was still well ahead of the five-year average rate (3.0%). As in recent months, Asia Pacific and European airlines accounted for the majority of the annual change in industry-wide FTKs, alongside solid contributions from North American and Middle Eastern carriers. African airlines also made a modest contribution to the total change, but Latin American carriers were a drag on annual growth for the 23rd time in 25 months. Download the full document here.
- 2016 IATA Resolution Carbon Emmissions
72nd IATA Annual General Meeting
Resolutions on the developmentof a global market-based measure for international aviation
Resolution 1. Endorses the continuing efforts of its member airlines and other industry stakeholders to develop and implement efficiency and emissions reduction measures to address CO2 emissions from aviation as part of broader ambitions within the global community to address climate change and to safeguard sustainable development.
Resolution 2. Urges governments to adopt at the 39th ICAO Assembly a mandatory and global carbon offset mechanism to address CO2 emissions from international aviation in a cost-effective manner, which can be implemented from 2020 and which is consistent with the recommended design elements as set out in Appendix I to this Resolution.
Resolution 3. Calls upon governments to work constructively with industry to support the continued growth of a safe, orderly and efficient global air transport system through the consistent and coordinated implementation of the uniform global mechanism, which should obviate the need for existing and new economic measures to be applied to emissions from international aviation on a regional or national basis. Download the full document here.
- June 2016 IATA Outlook for airline markets and industry performance
Brian Pearce, IATA Chief Economist
The Airline Industry Economic Performance takes a broader look at how the industry is adding value for its consumers, the wider economy and governments, as well as for its investors. It is released on a bi-annual basis since June 2014 and it substitutes the former Financial Forecast publication. Download the full document here.